A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
