Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
